Election site predicts SNP victory in North Ayrshire & Arran
A website run by the respected New Statesman magazine has calculated the likely winner of May’s UK Election in the North Ayrshire & Arran constituency.
Astonishingly, in a seat where Labour secured a majority of almost 10,000 at the last election in 2010, the ‘May 2015’ website claims it is 94% likely the local constituency will return an SNP MP this time.
The news will be welcomed by SNP candidate Patricia Gibson (pictured), but will come as a shock to Labour’s Katy Clark who has represented North Ayrshire & Arran since 2005.
The New Statesman election site explained how it reached its conclusion, “All Scotland’s seats are placed in one of five groups, based on bookies’ latest odds and published opinion polls: more than 70 per cent likely to vote SNP (likely); 60-69 per cent (fairly likely); 50-59 per cent (leaning towards SNP); 35-49 per cent (leaning towards Labour); and less than 35 per cent likely (unlikely to vote SNP).”
With North Ayrshire calculated as being 94% likely to vote SNP, the next eight weeks will see Labour desperately try to save the seat the party has held since 1987.
Other candidates contesting the local constituency are: Jamie Greene (Conservative & Unionist Party), Ruby Kirkwood (Liberal Democrat) and Sharon McGonigal (UKIP).