With little more than two-weeks until the UK Election (May 7th), bookmakers are listing the SNP as favourites to win the North Ayrshire & Arran constituency.
Over the past month the major betting organisations have moved from having Labour and the SNP neck-and neck, to the Nationalists slightly ahead, and now apparently pulling into a clear lead.
All bookies offering prices currently have the SNP ‘odds on’ for a victory in the local seat. For example, Bet365 has the party at 1/9, meaning you would need to place a bet of £9.00 to win just £1.00. William Hill’s odds reflect even more confidence in an SNP victory at 1/10.
Ladbrokes, Coral and Bet365 put Labour at 5/1 - a £1.00 stake would win £5.00 if Labour’s Katy Clark retained the seat she has held since 2005.
A local bookmaker told the3towns.today, “The odds we offer reflect the probability of an outcome. At the moment it is a strong probability the SNP will win North Ayrshire & Arran.”
To take the seat, SNP candidate Patricia Gibson needs to overturn a Labour majority of almost 10,000 from the last UK Election in 2010. However, Mrs Gibson’s husband, Kenneth, is currently the SNP Member of the Scottish Parliament for the broadly-equivalent seat of Cunninghame North. In 2011 Mr Gibson secured an SNP majority of 6,117.
Other candidates for the North Ayrshire & Arran seat are placed at ‘long odds’: Liberal Democrats – 150/1; Conservative and UKIP – 100/1.